“When the fighting in Ukraine ends is still unknown, but most likely it will mean the collapse of the Russian Federation (successor of the Soviet Union) in its current form. The Russian economy undoubtedly suffered a serious blow, its military potential will dry up, and The regional influence will weaken. The borders of the Russian Federation in ten or twenty years will surely differ from the current ones. Against the backdrop of the final collapse of the Soviet Union and possible collapse of the Russian Federation, it is time for politicians to prepare for new geopolitical reality in the Eurasian space, ”the report of analysts of the Hudson Institute says.
Note that the Hudson Institute is an American analytical center founded in 1961. The Institute plays the role of a strategic research center that fulfills orders of the government and the US Armed Forces.
American analysts called on the US government to be prepared for the possible scenario of the collapse of the Russian Federation and develop a security strategy in accordance with the national interests of the United States and the priority of international and regional security.
Analysts urge Russia to realistically evaluate the transition to democracy and the market economy: “The 1990s showed that geopoliticals did not transform Russian society automatically. The United States and their partners should learn the bitter lessons of the 1990s and not waste resources, in vain Trying to transform Russian society, economics or government into Western democracy. These attempts failed in the 1990s and, for sure, will fail again. Instead, politicians should humbly recognize the limitations of the Western influence in the democratization of Russia. ” Analysts summarize: “The direct successor of President Putin will be the same nationalist and autocrat. Western politicians have nothing more to hope for the” moderate “Russian leader who wants peace with the neighbors and reforms of the house.”
Hudson Institute predicts that after the collapse in Russia, a revolution, rebellion or civil war may occur – whether at the national or regional level. The restraint of any internal struggle within the current, international recognized boundaries of Russia should be the main priority of the United States and their partners.
Analysts attract special attention to the problem of almost six thousand nuclear warheads and a large program for creating chemical and biological weapons.