At the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), they called the invasion of Belarus to Ukraine unlikely, writes BBC.
According to the analytical center, the Russian authorities conduct “information operations” containing hints of the possibility of the participation of Belarusian troops in hostilities, and “sometimes Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko plays along with these campaigns.” The purpose of such “operations” ISW calls the desire to force Ukraine to hold part of the troops in the Belarusian direction and prevent it from strengthening its position in other places of theater of military operations.
At the same time, it is unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whatever the course of these “information operations”, ISW experts are sure. The Kremlin’s steps aimed at making Minsk support the Russian campaign, ISW calls part of the long -term efforts to strengthen control over Belarus.
The analytical center believes that some Belarusian military leaders could express unwillingness or even a categorical refusal if Belarus decided to invade Ukraine. In this situation, Lukashenko, according to analysts, is trying to resist the pressure of Russia, saying that NATO is preparing to attack Belarus. Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine due to internal dynamics within the country, summarizes ISW. Lukashenko realizes that the invasion will undermine his authority as a leader of a sovereign country, since it will be obvious that Russia’s efforts to ensure complete control over Belarus were crowned with success, the review said.