Director of Paris Advanced Research Center (PARC), Dr. Wizel Chelik specifically for the publication of AA Analyst, evaluates the political and economic risks that arose after the vote of distrust to the government Francois Bayru.
***
The Government of the Prime Minister Francois Bayra could not get a flood Confidence in the budget consideration: 384 deputies voted against, 194 – for. The attempts to explain the seriousness of economic challenges and the significance of the budget presented did not convince the opposition.
The budget deficit exceeded 5% of GDP, significantly higher than the EU limit of 3%. The presented plan for reducing expenses by 43.8 billion euros was supposed to restore financial discipline, but the expected reductions in healthcare, education and vacation system caused discontent in society and did not receive parliamentary support.
The state debt of France exceeded 3 trillion euros. The increase in the profitability of 10-year bonds is higher than the Greek level and the possible decrease in Fitch ratings enhance not only economic, but also political pressure. Thus, the resignation of the cabinet reflects not only the ideological contradictions in parliament, but also the growing impact of strict economic realities.
Rating of President Emmanuel Macron fell to a recordly low values. Polls show: the crisis is comparable in scale with the protests of the “yellow vests” of 2018-2019. The leader of the National Association Marin Le Pen requires the resignation of the President and the dissolution of the National Assembly. In the case of early elections, its party, according to polls, can gain about 31% of the vote and go to the leaders.
the option using Article 16 of the Constitution, which allows you to concentrate power in the hands of the president, is unlikely due to the risk of aggravation of the political crisis. Macron’s resignation also looks unrealistic. The most likely script remains the dissolution of the parliament and new elections: this requires 61% of the French. However, last year’s attempt by the president did not give a result, and forecasts also do not promise him a stable majority.
What next?
The appointment of a new prime minister would have become a third serious test for Macron. The leader of the Socialists Olivier Forces expects to receive the mandate for the formation of the government, but the head of the “rebellious France” Jean-Luke Melanshon has already stated that he would not support his candidacy. The possible alliance of the presidential bloc with the left is limited by deep ideological disagreements.
the melanchon calls the situation the “crisis of the regime” and claims that the institutions of the Fifth Republic cannot cope with increasing challenges. As a way out, he offers the transition to the sixth republic. Meanwhile, the social movement of Bloquons Tout (“block everything”) called on September 10 to a nationwide strike.