War in Karabakh in the fall of 2020 seriously weakened the general positions of Moscow in the Caucasus. Such an opinion in an interview with the Armenian service “Radio Liberty” was expressed by the director of the Moscow center of Carnegie Dmitry Train.
According to the Russian expert, Turkey has turned its “quantitative” presence and influence in the region in “Qualitative”, and Russia in the commissioning of peacekeepers to the Karabakh region in November last year only limited the damage that was printed to its positions as an intermediary in the conflict region.
“Moscow is still a key external factor in the development of the situation around Karabakh, but not dominant,” Dmitry Train stressed.
According to him, in the light of the last events, the South Caucasus is increasingly distinguished from the zone of the influence of Moscow, becoming more for her rather subregion of the Middle East. The expert believes that Russia in the South Caucasus has no vital interests.
“Russia has certain obligations to Armenia. I consider this debt of Russia, the honor of Russia to fulfill its obligations. By the way, the Karabakh did not be covered with these obligations. Russia has an interest in the development of relations with Azerbaijan. This is a large country, a neighboring country , and Russia, of course, will strive to ensure that these relationships develop. There is Georgia with its pro-Western orientation. But all this very tightly twisted tangle of relations Moscow should, in my opinion, very actively, well, not so much unraveling, probably it is impossible. How to actively use in your own “,” said Russian expert.
Train believes that “the main interest for Russia is not to be in a state of armed conflict with such a major regional power as Turkey, not to be in a state of conflict with the neighbor in Azerbaijan, not to quit its historic ally Armenia on the mercy of fate, but at the same time Understanding that its ability to achieve the decision of the Karabakh problem is extremely limited. “